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The £13 Billion Question: Where Is the Defence Investment Plan?

  • Writer: Danny Lee
    Danny Lee
  • May 26
  • 4 min read

VaeloAerospace.com


The British government has made a promise it is still working out how to keep, and for manufacturers watching from the sidelines, the timing has never mattered more. 


In February 2025, Prime Minister Keir Starmer committed to the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War.  


Expenditure would rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2027-28, representing £13.4 billion more per year than was spent in 2024-25[1].  


The longer-term ambition was more striking still - defence and national security spending rising to 3% of GDP in the next Parliament[2]. 



A graph showing departmental spending for the MoD - VAELO Aerospace
Source: MOD, Defence departmental resources: 2024; HM Treasury, Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2025, Table 1.10; HM Treasury, GDP deflators, September 2025 (Quarterly National Accounts) 


A graph showing Defence expenditure of NATO Members - VALEO Aerospace
Source: NATO, Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2025) 

At the centre of translating that commitment into funded programmes was the Defence Investment Plan (DIP), a ten year blueprint replacing the old Equipment Plan.  


Despite being promised in autumn 2025, the DIP has been delayed, and there is no confirmation of when it may be published[3]. 

  


What Is Already on the Table 


Before addressing what is missing, it is worth understanding the weight of what has already been committed. 


The Strategic Defence Review, published in June 2025, set out investment on a scale not seen in decades[4]: 


  • £15 billion in the current Parliament for the sovereign nuclear warhead programme 

  • £6 billion in munitions, including £1.5 billion for an 'always on' production pipeline 

  • Up to £1 billion in new funding for homeland air and missile defence 


The Defence Industrial Strategy, published alongside it, was equally direct about who should benefit.  


It committed £250 million in Defence Growth Deals across Plymouth, South Yorkshire, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, alongside a £182 million skills package, and a clear target to increase SME spending by £2.5 billion by May 2028[5]. 

  


A poster showing the Defence Industrial strategy - VAELO Aerospace
Ministry of Defence - Defence Industrial Strategy 2025 

  

The Door Opening for Smaller Businesses 


For business owners outside the traditional prime contractors, the most important number in this entire programme is £7.5 billion. 


In a Hansard debate on defence procurement in June 2025, the Government confirmed a 50% increase in MoD spending with SMEs - rising to £7.5 billion annually by 2028, reversing a downward trend under the previous Government[6]. 


"This Government's increase in defence spending will provide jobs and growth across the UK." — Hansard, Defence Procurement: SMEs, June 2025[6] 

To support that commitment, the Government established the Office for Small Business Growth alongside a new SME specific Commercial Pathway, designed to reduce bureaucracy, cut red tape, and move at pace[7].  


The door is being actively widened. Walking through it demands your preparation. 

  


The Delay and What It Is Costing 


At the time of this article (23 May 2026) the Defence Investment Plan remains unpublished.  


Without it, industry has no clear picture of which programmes are funded, in what sequence, or to what value.  


By January 2026, the situation had become serious enough that the Chairs of both the Defence Committee and the Public Accounts Committee wrote jointly to MoD Permanent Secretary Jeremy Pocklington demanding answers. 


Their letter was unambiguous[8]: 


"Continued delays cannot be blamed on external events, which are unceasing." — Joint letter from Defence Committee and Public Accounts Committee Chairs, January 2026[8] 

In March 2026, Parliament convened a dedicated session to examine the impact of the delay on industry, questioning trade unions and bodies including the Federation of Small Businesses and Make UK Defence [9].  


In image showing the names of this who provided Oral Evidence on 24 Mar 26 - Defence Committee House of Commons 
Oral Evidence provided on 24 Mar 26 - Defence Committee House of Commons 

In image showing the names of this who provided Oral Evidence on 24 Mar 26 - Defence Committee House of Commons 
Oral Evidence provided on 24 Mar 26 - Defence Committee House of Commons 

The message from the supply chain was clear: firms are bleeding cash, investment is being postponed, and some businesses are exiting the sector entirely. 


For the firms that survive the uncertainty, the opportunity ahead is real. For those that don't, the spending surge will benefit someone else. 

  


The Certification Question Nobody Is Asking 


There is a hidden dimension to all of this, one that rarely surfaces in parliamentary debate, but sits at the very centre of whether a business can actually benefit from what is coming. 


The numbers on the ground tell their own story.  


MoD spending with UK industry grew by 6% in real terms to £31.7 billion in 2024-25, including a 21% uplift in weapons and ammunition, and nearly 70% of that spending falls outside London and the South East [10].  


The contracts are dispersing across the country. The supply chains are opening. 

But here is the part that matters most. 


Every tier of aerospace and defence procurement operates inside a quality management framework that is non-negotiable.  


AS9100 (the international aerospace quality management standard) and AS9120, (its distribution equivalent), are the baseline entry requirements.  


Without them, the contracts being unlocked are simply not accessible, regardless of how capable the underlying business is. 


The businesses that will win work from this wave of investment are those already certified, or those moving now.  


Every business waiting for the Defence Investment Plan to publish before starting the certification process will find itself 12 - 18 months behind competitors who read the direction of travel early and acted on it. 


  • The UK's biggest defence build up in a generation is under way.  

  • The plan that governs it may still be delayed, but the direction is irreversible. 


The question is not whether this market is opening. 


It is whether your business will be ready when it does. 


To find out what AS9100 or AS9120 certification looks like for your business, and what a realistic timeline to certification actually involves, visit us at vaeloaerospace.com to speak directly with our dedicated Aerospace Team: 

  

Danny Lee - Director of Operations 


  

  

Sources 


[1] House of Commons Defence Committee - Affordability of the Defence Investment Plan: https://committees.parliament.uk/work/9520/affordability-of-the-defence-investment-plan/ 


[2] House of Commons Library - UK Defence Spending: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8175/ 


[3] UK Parliament - One-off session on the impact of the delay to the Defence Investment Plan on industry: https://committees.parliament.uk/event/26859 


[4] House of Commons Library - Strategic Defence Review 2025: Key Points: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10406/ 




[7] UK Parliament - Written Evidence: Securing Scotland's Future — Defence Skills and Jobs: https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/157479/html/ 



[9] UK Parliament - One-off session on the impact of the delay to the Defence Investment Plan on industry, March 2026: https://committees.parliament.uk/event/26859 


 

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